Persediaan uang: Perbedaan antara revisi

15.701 bita dihapus ,  9 tahun yang lalu
-inggris
k (bot Menambah: ar:عملة متداولة; kosmetik perubahan)
(-inggris)
{{terjemah|Inggris}}
'''Persediaan uang''', sebuah konsep dalam [[ekonomi mikro]], adalah jumlah [[uang]] yang tersedia dalam ekonomi untuk membeli [[barang]], [[jasa]], dan "[[securities]]".
 
<!--
==Introduction==
When analysing the money supply, it is important to make a few opening remarks. First, the monetary sector, as opposed to the real sector, concerns the money ''market''. The same tools of analysis can be applied as with other markets: supply and demand result in an equilibrium price (the interest rate) and quantity (of real money balances).
 
Secondly,when considering supply and demand for money, it is important to distinguish between wealth (for which demand could very well be considered infinite) and money, which is one of many different forms of asset in which to hold wealth, alongside other common forms such as property, stocks, bonds, etc.
 
Lastly, when thinking about the "supply" of money, it is natural to think of the total of notes and coinage in an economy. That, however, is the [[money base]]. Another starting point for the concept of money supply is the total of deposit balances in everyone's bank (and other financial) accounts in an economy (for more precise definitions, see below). The relationship between these two supplies is the ''money multiplier''—basically, the ratio of cash in peoples' wallets to balances in their financial accounts. The gap between the two occurs because of the system of fractional reserve banking.
-->
 
== Ruang lingkup ==
* '''M2''': M1 + jenis simpanan akun lainnya, "[[money market account]]", dan [[sertifikat deposit]] (SD) accounts di bawah AS$100,000.
* '''M3''': M2 + seluruh SD lainnya, deposits [[eurodollars]] dan "[[repurchase agreement]]".
<!--
==Link with inflation==
=== Monetary exchange equation ===
Money supply is important because it is directly linked to [[inflation]] by the "monetary exchange equation":
[[income velocity of money|velocity]] × money supply = [[real GDP]] × [[GDP deflator]]
where:
*velocity = the number of times per year that money changes hands (if it's a number it's always simply GDP / money supply)
*money supply = money supply
*real GDP = nominal GDP / GDP deflator
*[[Gross Domestic Product deflator]] = measure of [[inflation]] Money supply may be less than or greater than the demand of money in the economy
 
Or PY = MV.
 
P (the price level) times Y (real output) equal M (money stock) times V ("velocity") ([http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc040524.htm]).
 
In other words, if the money supply grows faster than real GDP (unproductive debt expansion), inflation must follow as velocity has been shown to be relatively stable.
 
=== Percentage ===
In terms of percentage changes (to a small approximation, the percentage change in a product, say XY is equal to the sum of the percentage changes %X + %Y). So:
 
%P + %Y = %M + %V
 
That equation rearranged gives the "[[basic inflation identity]]":
 
%P = %M + %V - %Y
 
Inflation (%P) is equal to the rate of money growth (%M), plus the change in velocity (%V), minus the rate of output growth (%Y).
 
==Money Supply and Cash==
In the U.S., as of July 28, [[2005]], M1 was about $1.4 trillion, M2 about $6.5 trillion, and M3 about $9.7 trillion. If you split all of the money equally per person in the United States, each person would end up with roughly $30,000 ($9,700,000M/300M). The amount of actual physical cash M0 was $688 billion in 2004, slightly more than the $474 billion of [[deposits]] at [[Citigroup]] at the end of 2003. ([http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=C&annual])
 
==The Central Bank==
The supply of money can only increase if the money is first "printed" by the issuer of money, usually the government [[central bank]]. The [[central bank]] "prints" coins, bills and electronic money.
 
The "printing" is usually done by the central bank buying [[government debt]]. The government debt can be bought directly from the government or from public holdings (primarily [[banks]]). In the [[United States]] the decision on how much government debt the [[Federal Reserve]] should buy is decided by the [[Federal Open Market Committee]] (FOMC). The process by which the M0 money supply is managed is known as [[open market operations]].
 
The larger definitions of the money supply, M1, M2, and M3, are types of [[deposit account]]s. The first balance sheet item in a bank is usually deposits. Of the money in a bank deposit, depending on [[reserve requirements]], either the whole sum or some fraction of it can immediately be lent out. The borrower can buy an asset and the seller of that asset can place the proceeds in another money supply constituent [[deposit]]. The money supply has just increased, because both the original and secondary deposits count as part of the money supply. That money can therefore continue increase many times over. The [[Federal Reserve]] decides the level of "[[reserves of depository institutions]]".
 
[[Monetary policy]] has effects on employment and output in the short run, but in the long run, it affects primarily prices.
 
===The balance sheets===
This is what money supply growth may look like starting with 1 new dollar of [[deposits]]. The money is moving from left to right. The Central Bank buys a government bond from Bank 1 for $1, Bank 1 lends the proceeds to Person 1, who buy an asset from Person 2, who deposit the proceeds at Bank 2, who loans it to Person 3, who buys an asset from Person 4, who deposit the proceeds in Bank 1, and the money supply is $2.
 
{| border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" align="center" width="" height=""
|-
|
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="140px"
|+''' Central Bank '''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Assets
|-
| Gov. debt (to B1) || align="right"| $1
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Liabilities
|-
| - || align="right"| -
|}
||
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="140px"
|+'''Bank 1'''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Assets
|-
| Loan (to P1) || align="right"| $1
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Liabilities
|-
| Deposit (from P4) || align="right"| $1
|}
||
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="140px"
|+''' Person 1'''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Assets
|-
| Investment (to P2) || align="right"| $1
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Liabilities
|-
| Loan (from B1) || align="right"| $1
|}
||
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="140px"
|+''' Person 2'''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Assets
|-
| Deposit (to B2) || align="right"| $1
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Liabilities
|-
| - || align="right"| -
|}
||
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="140px"
|+'''Bank 2'''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Assets
|-
| Loan (to P3) || align="right"| $1
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="2" | Liabilities
|-
| Deposit (from P2) || align="right"| $1
|}
|}
 
See for example the [[balance sheet]] from [[Citigroup]] Inc. at [http://www.citigroup.com/citigroup/fin/ar.htm].
 
==Bank reserves at Central Bank==
When the Fed is "easing", it increases the [[monetary base]] by purchasing [[Treasuries]] on the open market. When the Fed is "tightening", it reduces the [[monetary base]] by selling Treasuries on the [[open market]]. It reduces or increases the supply of short term government debt, and inversely increases or reduces the supply of currency.
 
The operative notion of easy money is that the Fed creates new [[bank reserves]] (also known as "[[federal funds]]", trades in the "[[money market]]"), which let the banks lend out more money. These loans get spent, and the proceeds get [[deposit]]ed at other banks. Whatever is not required to be held as reserves is then lent out again, and through the magic of the "money multiplier", loans and bank deposits go up by many times the initial injection of reserves.
 
However in the 1970s the reserve requirements on deposits started to fall with the emergence of [[money market funds]], which require no reserves. Then in the early 1990s, reserve requirements were dropped to zero on [[savings deposit]]s, [[Certificate of deposit|CD]]s, and [[Eurocurrency deposits]]. At present, reserve requirements apply only to "[[transactions deposits]]" - essentially [[checking accounts]]. The vast majority of funding sources used by banks to create loans have nothing to do with bank reserves.
 
These days, [[commercial and industrial loans]] are financed by issuing large denomination [[Certificate of deposit|CD]]s. [[Money market]] deposits are largely used to lend to corporations who issue [[short term commercial paper]]. Consumer loans are also made using [[savings deposit]]s which are not subject to reserve requirements. These loans can be bunched into securities and sold to somebody else, taking them off of the bank's books.
 
The point is simple. Commercial, industrial and consumer loans no longer have any link to bank reserves. Since 1995, the volume of such loans has exploded, while bank reserves have declined.
 
In recent years, the irrelevance of "[[open market operations]]" has also been argued by academic economists renown for their work on the implications of [[rational expectations]], including [[Robert Lucas, Jr.]], [[Thomas Sargent]], [[Neil Wallace]], [[Finn E. Kydland]], [[Edward C. Prescott]] and [[Scott Freeman]].
 
==Arguments and criticism==
One of the principal jobs of [[central bank]]s (such as the [[US Federal Reserve]], the [[Bank of England]] and the [[European Central Bank]]) is to keep money supply growth in line with real GDP growth. Central banks do this primarily by applying pressure on the "[[federal funds]]" [[interest rate]] through [[open market operations]].
 
A very common criticism of this policy, originating with the creators of GDP as a measure, is that "real GDP growth" is in fact meaningless, and since GDP can grow for many reasons including manmade disasters and crises, is not correlated with any known means of [[measuring well-being]]. This use of the GDP figures is considered by its own creators to be an abuse, and dangerous. The most common solution proposed by such critics is that money supply (which determines the value of all [[financial capital]], ultimately, by diluting it) should be kept in line with some more ecological and social and human means of [[measuring well-being]]. In theory, money supply would expand when well-being is improving, and contract when well-being is decreasing, giving all parties in the economy a direct interest in improving well-being.
 
This argument must be balanced against what is nearly [[dogma]] among economists: that the control of [[inflation]] is the main (or only) job of a central bank, and that any introduction of non-financial means of [[measuring well-being]] has an inevitable [[domino effect]] of increasing [[government spending]] and diluting [[capital (economics)|capital]] and the rewards of gainfully employing capital.
 
Currency integration is thought by some economists -- [[Robert Mundell]], for example -- to alleviate this problem by ensuring that currencies become less competitive in the [[commodity markets]], and that a wider political base be employed in the setting of currency and inflation and well-being policy. This thinking is in part the basis of the [[Euro]] currency integration in the [[European Union]].
 
Money supply remains one of the most controversial aspects of economics itself.
 
==United States monetary base==
[[United States]] [[monetary base]] at the end of September 2004.
 
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="400px"
|+''' Monetary base (billions of dollars) (not seasonally adjusted) '''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="6" | Monetary Base
|-
| [[Reserves of depository institutions]] || align="right"| 46.4
|-
| [[Reserve balances with F.R. Banks]] || align="right"| 13.0
|-
| [[Vault cash surplus]] || align="right"| 11.4
|-
| [[Currency]] <sup>1</sup> || align="right"| 688.2
|- style="background:#efefef;font-weight:bold;" |
! Sum || align="right"| 759.0
|}
 
==United States money supply==
[[United States]] money supply at the end of September 2004. The only deposits that have "[[reserve requirements]]" are the M1 "[[checking deposits]]".
 
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="400px"
|+''' Money Supply (billions of dollars) (not seasonally adjusted) '''
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="6" | M1
|-
| [[Currency]] <sup>1</sup> || align="right"| 688.2
|-
| [[Demand Deposit]]s <sup>2</sup> || align="right"| 321.0
|-
| [[Other checkable deposits|Other Checkable Deposits]] <sup>3</sup> || align="right"| 319.5
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="6" | M2
|-
| [[Savings deposit]]s <sup>4</sup> || align="right"| 3,472.5
|-
| [[Small-denomination time deposits]] <sup>5</sup> || align="right"| 795.6
|-
| [[Retail money fund]]s <sup>6</sup> || align="right"| 729.5
|-
! style="background:#efefef;" colspan="6" | M3
|-
| [[Institutional money fund]]s || align="right"| 1,071.6
|-
| [[Large-denomination time deposits]] <sup>7</sup> || align="right"| 1,018.2
|-
| [[Repurchase Agreement]]s <sup>8</sup> || align="right"| 537.3
|-
| [[Eurodollar]]s <sup>9</sup> || align="right"| 322.2
|- style="background:#efefef;font-weight:bold;" |
! Sum || align="right"| 9,311.7
|}
 
:<small> 1. Currency outside [[U.S. Treasury]], [[Federal Reserve Banks]] and the vaults of [[depository institutions]]. </small>
:<small> 2. Demand deposits at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and [[Edge Act Corporation]]s (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float. </small>
:<small> 3. NOW and ATS balances. </small>
:<small> 4. Savings deposits include [[money market deposit accounts]]. </small>
:<small> 5. Small-denomination time deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All [[Individual Retirement Account|IRA]] and [[Keogh]] account balances at [[commercial banks]] and [[thrift]] institutions are subtracted from small time deposits. </small>
:<small> 6. IRA and Keogh account balances at [[money market mutual funds]] are subtracted from [[retail money funds]]. </small>
:<small> 7. Large-denomination time deposits at [[domestically chartered commercial bank]]s, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act Corporations, excluding those amounts held by [[depository institution]]s, the [[U.S. government]], foreign banks and [[official institution]]s, and [[money market mutual fund]]s. </small>
:<small> 8. [[Repurchase agreement|RP]] liabilities of [[depository institution]]s, in denominations of $100,000 or more, on U.S. government and [[federal agency securities]], excluding those amounts held by [[depository institution]]s, the [[U.S. government]], foreign banks and [[official institution]]s, and [[money market mutual funds]].
:<small> 9. Eurodollars held by U.S. addressees at foreign branches of U.S. banks worldwide and at all banking offices in the [[United Kingdom]] and [[Canada]], excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, foreign banks and official institutions, and by [[money market mutual funds]].</small>
 
{| border="1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" align="center" width="400px"
|+''' Comparable numbers (billions of dollars) (not seasonally adjusted) '''
|- style="background:#efefef;" |
! GDP (seasonally adjusted) ([http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/Z1/Current/accessible/f6.htm]) || align="right"| 11,643.0
|- style="background:#efefef;" |
! [[Credit market]] Debt Outstanding ([http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/Z1/Current/accessible/l1.htm]) || align="right"| 35,181.7
|- style="background:#efefef;" |
! [[Derivative security|Derivatives]] (notional) ([http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm]) || align="right"| 79,400.0
|}
-->
 
== Lihat pula ==