Revisi per 8 Februari 2007 18.10 sunting IvanLanin (bicara \| kontrib) Birokrat, Pengurus 52.117 suntingan k Suntingan 70.238.172.217 (Bicara) dikembalikan ke versi terakhir oleh Stephensuleeman ← Revisi sebelumnya		Revisi per 8 Februari 2007 18.40 sunting balikkan Stephensuleeman (bicara \| kontrib) 24.084 suntingan →‎Sejarah jajak pendapat Revisi selanjutnya →
Baris 2: == Sejarah jajak pendapat == Contoh jajak pendapat pertama yang dketahui adalah sebuah pengumpulan pendapat setempat oleh ''The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian'' pada [[1824]], yang menunjukkan bahwa [[Andrew Jackson]] unggul atas [[John Quincy Adams]] dengan 335 banding 169 suara dalam perebutan jaatan [[Presiden Amerika Serikat]]. Pengumpulan pendapat seperti itu—yang tidak bersifat ilmiah— pelan-pelan menjadi makin populer; namun sifatnya tetap lokal dan biasanya hanya meliputi satu kota saja. Pada [[1916]], ''[[Literary Digest]]'' melakukan survai nasional (sebagian sebagai upaya peningkatan sirkulasi) dan secara tepat meramalkan terpilihnya [[Woodrow Wilson]] sebagai Presiden. Dengan semata-mata mengirimkan jutaan [[kartu pos]] dan menghitung kartu yang kembali, ''Digest'' dengan tepat meramalkan keempat pemilihan presiden berikutnya. ~~<!--~~ The first known example of an opinion poll was a local straw vote conducted by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian in [[1824]], showing [[Andrew Jackson]] leading [[John Quincy Adams]] by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the [[President of the United States\|United States Presidency]]. Such straw votes—unweighted and unscientific— gradually became more popular; but they remained local, usually city-wide phenomena. In [[1916]], the ''[[Literary Digest]]'' embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted [[Woodrow Wilson]]'s election as President. Mailing out millions of [[postcard]]s and simply counting the returns, the ''Digest'' correctly called the following four presidential elections. <!--In 1936, however, the ''Digest'' came unstuck. Its 2.3 million "voters" constituted a huge sample; however they were generally more affluent Americans who tended to have [[United States Republican Party\|Republican]] sympathies. The ''Literary Digest'' did nothing to correct this bias. The week before election day, it reported that [[Alf Landon]] was far more popular than [[Franklin Delano Roosevelt\|Franklin D. Roosevelt]]. At the same time, [[George Gallup]] conducted a far smaller, but more scientifically-based survey, in which he polled a demographically representative sample. Gallup correctly predicted Roosevelt's landslide victory. The ''Literary Digest'' went out of business soon afterwards, while the polling industry started to take off . [[Gallup]] launched a subsidiary in the [[United Kingdom]], where it correctly predicted [[Labour Party (UK)\|Labour's]] victory in the [[United Kingdom general election, 1945\|1945 general election]], in contrast with virtually all other commentators, who expected the [[Conservative Party (UK)\|Conservative Party]], led by [[Winston Churchill]], to win easily.

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